We all know the stats on the Lakers vs the Nuggets since last year’s playoffs. Denver swept them in Western Conference Finals and beat them in all 3 games in the regular season this year too. But what makes Denver so effective against the Laker? Sure the MVP Jokic was a monster and dominated. I’d like to point to some other things that I noticed in that series and through out this season. Here are three things to watch for in this series.
What to watch for no. 1. – Can the Lakers contain Jamal Murray in crunch time?
That guy killed the Lakers last season no matter who was guarding him. He’s done it this year too with Austin Reeves and DeAngelo Russell trying to contain him. Russell has fared a bit better but Reaves seems to have no chance against him. If the Lakers want to be better in crunch time, they need to contain Denver’s 2nd best crunch time scorer and play maker a lot better than they have been. Here’s Murray’s stats in the 4th quarter of game 2 from last year’s series.
Here’s more of Murray torching everybody in game 3 of that same series:
Hopefully for Laker fans Gabe Vincent can continue to make a defensive impact like he did in that play-in game against New Orleans. They will need his quickness and toughness to keep Murray in check.
What to watch for no. 2. – When AD drives to the basket, make or miss, does he fall to the ground or goes out of bounds?
This pissed me off last year. You could tell Denver’s strategy was to run it at the Lakers at every chance they got. They felt the Lakers were slow in getting back in transition. And every time AD fell down on a drive or his momentun carried him out of bounds under his own basket, Denver made LA pay! They sprinted down the floor and played 5 on 4 basketball. Every single time the Nuggets passed the ball to an open 3-pt shooter in transition and that guy made the shot, every, single, time. This seemed to happen 5 or 6 times a game. AD has to find a way to drive to the basket in a controlled manner, where he can catch himself and get back on defense quickly. If not, Denver is going to sprint the floor and find the open guy. That could be a disaster for the Lakers.
What to watch for no. 3. – Does Lebron hold the ball in the 4th quarter and crunch time?
If he does, the Lakers will most likely lose that game. Lebron has a tendency to hold the ball and try to make every play when he enters the game in the 4th quarter, especially in crunch time. He may not understand that although he is still very productive and still has a lot of greatness left, he doesn’t bend the defense by simply possessing the ball like he used to. Denver and other teams don’t have to double team him anymore to contain him. Aaron Gordon is tall enough, wide enough, quick enough and strong enough to guard Lebron on his own and limit his effectiveness. When Lebron holds the ball for 12-18 seconds of the shot clock, probing, looking for the best look for the team, it usually backfires against good teams. This form of offense actually freezes his own teammates out too. DeAngelo, Rui and Reaves are better when they are a part of the offense early in the possession. Although all of them can knock down 3-pointers, they all are more efficient when the ball is hopping around. Their efficiency decreases when they are waiting 15 seconds for Lebron to decide where he is going to pass the ball.
Bonus: What type of adjustments does Darvin Ham make during this series?
He hasn’t had the best year coaching. It hasn’t been as bad as some make it but it also didnt follow up his successful 2nd half of last season and of course the playoff run. He and his staff really needs a good series of strategy planning, effective tactics and adjustments to help the players out. Lebron probably wouldn’t hold the ball as long if he trusted the offense. Who am I fooling, yes he would. Regardless, the offense lacks imagination much of the time. That’s on the coaching staff.
So we’ll see what happens. However, if LA has trouble with all 4 of those things above, along with the greatness of Jokic, they will get swept again or only win one game in this series. I have hope but I also have my doubts. It is what it is, until it ain’t.